May I talk to an expert? I have an idea for a cure based on Lance Armstrong
I am not an expert, in what field of expertise do you seek?
Hi. I don't know, hematologists, oncologists, virologists.. I'm just an internet loony. Did you read the paper about blue methylene? the idea is to draw the patient's blood, inactivate the virus with this photoactivation technique, and take it back into the patient. I've read the virus seems to interfere with hemoglobin and you die because of inflammatory response and byproducts in your blood. As this virus is as easy to inactivate why not to carry out autotransfusions?
May I talk to an expert? I have an idea for a cure based on Lance Armstrong
I am not an expert, in what field of expertise do you seek?
Hi. I don't know, hematologists, oncologists, virologists.. I'm just an internet loony. Did you read the paper about blue methylene? the idea is to draw the patient's blood, inactivate the virus with this photoactivation technique, and take it back into the patient. I've read the virus seems to interfere with hemoglobin and you die because of inflammatory response and byproducts in your blood. As this virus is as easy to inactivate why not to carry out autotransfusions?
I honestly don't know Hikoki, that is a bit beyond me. I thought the main problem this virus led to was pneumonia?
Can someone tell me whether the NHS have a division that manufactures its own PPE - face masks, nursing garbs, protective capes etc. or is this all outsourced in the UK?
If they don't already would it not make sense for the NHS to basically produce all its PPE in-house, cut out the middle man?
It 'may have changed..but when I had a spell working for this NHS procurement dept(2003 to 2004)...procurement and preferred bidder system on contracts was nothing short of scandalous. For example..food was supplied by a company called 2332..and a sandwich was charged at something like 2.50..where as they could have sent someone to the Tesco and paid 1.10 for the same sandwich. Need 50 new computer workstations..why not pay some company 3500 pounds a time to supply..when they could have nipped down to Dixon and paid 500. Yeah, stuff could be made in UK, but from what I seen it was all contracted out via preferred bidder system. It was actually quite scandalous and the corruption and theft at all levels was incredible. Managers at all levels..especially at the top , line managers, staff..'back handers', pilfering. Manufacturing arm...nah. You get the drift..SKANDAL!!!!
Rebel MP Tommy Sheridan put forward proposals for 'socialised medicine'..by that he proposed that medicine should be researched inhouse, made and sold, that generic medicine and some equipment be made inhouse..BUT NO..he was laughed at and ostracized for such thinking. THEY termed it socialized medicine..but it's hardly that..just another media manipulation at the time.
Anyhoo. I remember an expert saying..I wish this outbreak had happened back in 2005 as the NHS would be able to cope much better..but so now its 2020...
Thanks AElita. Thats helpful. There are degrees of socialised healthcare. It seems like we have gradually out-sourced some things that it would have made much better sense to keep in house, such as making PPE, and food preparation.
Also why if buying 50 workstations, surely one could get those much cheaper than retail, even wholesale price if one went to the right company. I don't know how "prefered bidder" works but probably its not lowest bidder by the sound of it!
Randomised tests of the healthy public in the U.K. is currently unlikely, due to currently not having anywhere enough testing capacity. And even if we did, the tests that are being carried out will only reveal if you are currently infected.
We also need an effective, accurate and inexpensive antibody test so that we can also discover who has had the infection.
Once (if) we have sufficient testing capacity, then anyone who is suspected of having the infection can be tested, and their movements tracked, and the people they have interacted with, traced and also tested. This should, if done well, enable the ‘lock down’ to be lifted.
There does need to be millions of tests...
If/when a vaccine becomes available, then mass vaccination across the whole world should be able to eradicate this strain. Not that this is likely, as most countries will not want to pay for the third world to be inoculated.
Leaving some areas untreated, with the infection still spreading, risks the virus mutating. And it’s possible that eventually it will mutate into another strain and go around the world again.
I don’t know how to put in place an effective early warning system. But I do know that with modern air travel, it was likely, that sooner or later, an airborne infection would escape from one area, and quickly go round the whole world.
In the past, before travel by ship became common place, explorers brought infections (that were not considered dangerous in their homelands) to new populations that had no immunity and it caused widespread infections, often resulting in deaths.
So if there is an outbreak of something new, countries should be encouraged to tell the world, and the whole world should offer support (whatever they need) so that they can contain any new infection or disease. If necessary by suspending air travel and restricting surface transport to contain any outbreak.
As it stands at the moment, countries and governments acted far too late and far too slowly. Hence them now having to use a very blunt instrument, as they don’t have any other tools available. Worse, some did not learn the lessons from the countries that were first affected. Now they are paying the price.
Countries also (for the most part) acted only in their own self interest, instead of actively communicating and cooperating with one another.
Party because the top level of government saw the outbreak as only a China issue, and it was nothing to do with them. And partly because they did not believe others (fake news, it’s only like influenza).
The question was asked, if we did not have a lockdown, what would have been the outcome? Well, my crystal ball is currently inoperative (displaying an error message that says it has “limited functionality”).
Remember, even before the ‘lockdown’ various businesses were experiencing serious problems due to a dramatic fall in customers.
But a possible likely scenario if government took no action would be this:
Government ignores the consequences of a widespread infection. People get sick, hospitals quickly become overwhelmed. As hospitals can’t cope with the demand, medical staff have to make hard choices on who gets treatment. Lots of people start dying. The media picks up on all this.
As there are no travel restrictions, very quickly the sharp rise in hospital admissions and the resulting deaths spreads across the whole country. As more and more people leave the urban areas and retreat to the smaller towns, villages and countryside, so they spread the infection far and wide.
As the situation gets worse, more and more of the population decide to only go out to go to work or to get essentials (food, medicine). Those who are wealthy enough, stop at home because they don’t want to catch it and die. Increasingly, but far too late, large numbers of the population bunker down at home. But many are now infected even if they don’t know it yet.
The economy nosedives due to both people not going out socially and because businesses loose workers due to them becoming infected. It’s hard to run a company if most of your staff are off sick. Essential services breakdown as more and more people become infected. Shops can’t restock the shelves. Shops close. Fuel stations close.
Central and local government grinds to almost to a halt. Electrical power restrictions come in. Fuel is rationed. Police, ambulance and fire and rescue services increasingly break down. The banking and insurance system collapses as an increasing number of businesses go insolvent or just stop trading leaving bills unpaid.
With the government social security getting a triple whammy, of a huge spike in applications, a lot less staff and a drop in money (drastic drop in tax income), the waiting list for benefits skyrockets.
What little medical staff are left, still cannot cope with the seriously ill.
No one except the very rich has funerals, instead bodies are buried in mass graves. There are not enough fit healthy staff available who are willing to check on homes where there has been no activity. Thousands and thousands of people die in their own homes with the bodies awaiting discovery...
Of course, eventually those who survived both the infection and the chaos will restart the economy, as the fear subsides... but at what cost?
How bad would it get? I don’t know, but for certain it would be far worse than the current partially controlled ‘lockdown’.
! Standby alert !
“There are four lights!”
Step up to red alert. Sir, are you absolutely sure? It does mean changing the bulb!
Looking forward to summer in Somerset later in the year :)
Again many unsubstantiated claims and clearly avoiding addressing the bullet points you put forward earlier because you cannot substantiate them.
Also:
- earn enough money; (I was among a few lucky to get a paid leave, but soon it’s over)
Most civilized countries have unemployment benefits and in addition some are giving payments to their people. If that's not happening where you live, blame your government's inability to cope not some global scandal.
- ask urgent police/firemen help; (now they reluctantly come after an hour or later, unless it’s a serious case)
That's to be expected given the need for social distancing and a limited supply of personal protection equipment required for safe policing.
- ask for medical assistance; (also sluggish, unless the person is under 60 with a health insurance and no cancer or comorbids; or it might be an advanced form of pneumonia)
It there is capacity, hospitals will take you, but the sad truth is this virus is so potent that doctors are having to make the call over who is most likely to survive and have the best quality of life. That's why this virus is such a serious problem for every country.
- visit public places and parks or attend schools and institutions;
Do you honestly think the right to visit parks and attend schools is a priority at the moment?
By the way I am still teaching, as a professor of computer science my courses meet at the scheduled times but online as a collaborative web cast. So students can get taught if there is the will and the resources.
I am also still meeting weekly with my group of 8-12 year olds for Lego Club, their STEM and robotics class is now online. Its down to the individuals willingness to do it and technical resources at their disposal a not some global conspiracy. If it was I'm sure as hell the internet would not be working so well.
- go out without a mask even being not sick;
We all want that but its not practical or sensible at this time.
- go whenever and wherever he or she wants, including foreign countries;
Of **** off you nutter!
- personally communicate with the family members and others;
Telephone, facetime, skype, zoom? Online games.
- demand explanations, ask question, and voice unpopular opinions;
That's the internet.
-and everything because of a covid-19, while the worst is yet to come.[/b]
Yes, the most sensible thing you have said yet.
Now lets get to the rest of your babble, all eight points are still happening.
Oh and by the way, see you in two weeks. I thought at this time you would like some social discourse but you are clearly wanting to be abrasive.
Seen a headline that says social distancing may be required till 2022! Surely not! :(
Be careful, it is just a headline. Probably a single person, maybe a scientist, but still only one person may have mentioned it. News hang on to anything that sounds sensationalist and use it for impact.
Might work in my favour with some of the guys I work with ;) Also it'll stop those heated elements... Phew! :\">
Right - so before anyone goes off - remember how this spreads - contact with people or places infected people have been. Most dangerous thing I've done in weeks is shopping. We have one person comes out one goes in at the shops. No kids allowed. Lots of barriers/sanitisers/precautions in operation. People are keeping their distance from one another.
So - how's everyone been staying sane? I live alone and well.....this is getting real old real quick.
It's kind of depressing tbh. I can go days without even speaking at the moment if I don't check myself.
Safely getting out for some exercise is a good thing. If you don't see another person within say 50 feet and you're outside in your locale then all is good(check the numbers for Ireland - we're not doing too bad over here so far).
I've resorted to skateboarding....Keeping it small and safe though - not the time to break bones. Just pushing and cruising around with my Son(I live in the same estate as my ex). Very enjoyable way to break the boredom.
I had to nip into work(which has been an empty building for 2 - 3 weeks so again - safe enough) for a couple of hours today - weird driving on a motorway again. Everything approaching at 120km/h was actually appreciable after 3 weeks of being fairly stationary. Was a real mental boost to get out and drive further than 2kms from home.
Hope you're all finding a way to "keep your pecker up" anyway.
"I should use simulator loosely 'cos I don't think it's quite like this on the beach with helicopters and fires and the jumping beach buggy" - paulisthebest3uk 2020.
I'm actually getting kind of depressed with my work situation, I'm getting snowed under at work, they've hired a sh*tload of temps who I know are all on way more money than me, and literally suck at the job because they're meth head, and crackhead f*cks who have literally no care for their wellbeing so long as they're getting paid, only 2 of them have been wearing masks, even though it's supposedly company wide policy now, good show there corporate office, good f*cking show indeed! What actually needs to be getting done is getting done on a basic level, but these complete spackers lack of any regard for anything beyond autopilot is creating hours, and hours more work for me behind the scenes.
I've tried reeling them in, I've tried telling them what to do, and all I get is "I'll have to call my agency to make sure I can do that".....Seriously, you have to call your agency to make sure you can walk into the coldstore in back and place a box on top of a f*cking cart that has boxes on it? Get out of my f*cking workplace you f*cking scummy mother*cking toothless freeloaders.....All the while my bosses are bitching me out for sh*t not getting done that I could do better alone than without the so called "help" they're giving me! Why did they take away the 2 or 3 people from me who know what they're doing, and replace them with temps I have to constantly watch, and micro-manage, I can't f*cking deal with this s*t anymore....It's driving me f*cking mental!!!
….and the whole time customers saying things like "Thank you for you hard work", and things like "I Appreciate you guys", and "Thank you so much for keeping the shelves stocked"....It's p*ssing me off as well! Funny I don't recall a single compliment like that at all in the whole f*cking 12 years I've worked at my place before this sh*t happened? Hey I do this sh*t "EVERY" DAY, AND I MEAN EVERY DAY, NOT JUST DAYS WHEN THE WORLD IS COLLAPSSING IN ON ITSELF!!!!!....
So yeah it's good to know my hard f*cking work is only relevant when my life is at risk, go home to your f*cking mansion, drink 2 bottles of wine, polish your 8 giant gold rings, and hit your 6 kids while your husband f*cks his secretary at the hospital office block....f*cking c*nts!!!
What's really baking my head is though that the 2 potential amazing career swerves that were served up to me practically on a plate late last year can't happen now because of closures, and social distancing, both places are closed and I have no idea if they are even gonna survive. like most grocery types in the USA I'm held prisoner by although having a sh*t f*cking job I hate with every atom of my f*cking soul the health insurance is really, really good, and obviously at a time like this being a 41 year old smoker it could potentially be suicide to turn my back on such a thing....but really I have no idea how much more I can take? I'm going mental here, and I think I was long before this f*cking virus took a grip, but it looks like I have no real way out now......Don't know how much more I can take :(:(:(
Randomised tests of the healthy public in the U.K. is currently unlikely, due to currently not having anywhere enough testing capacity. And even if we did, the tests that are being carried out will only reveal if you are currently infected.
Both Iceland and Austria are doing voluntary screening and getting useful information.
Basically in the UK there are people who are not sick seeking to know if they are nevertheless infected but asymptomatic. As the number of people being tested increases it soon will reach a point where it would have been equivalent to the numbers involved in a randomised trial. It may already be passed that in the UK. But I think there might be a lot of value in doing the randomised trial as early as possible. While it would be best done once an anti-body blood test is available, one could nevertheless already be taking and storing blood samples for analysis by way of a randomised selection of healthy people - while waiting for the anti-body tests to become available.
We also need an effective, accurate and inexpensive antibody test so that we can also discover who has had the infection.
I agree Mark. Private commercial labs will inevitably seek to make a profit on producing these as they have to direct resources away from other work. Making a small profit may not be profiteering, but there is always the issue of reaching agreement on pricing. For that reason I think we need more public laboratories in the UK.
Once (if) we have sufficient testing capacity, then anyone who is suspected of having the infection can be tested, and their movements tracked, and the people they have interacted with, traced and also tested. This should, if done well, enable the ‘lock down’ to be lifted.
Sounds like a nightmare Orwellian state in the making to be honest. This would not be practical - tracing contacts and testing them is mainly practical only when a virus has newly emerged and we know it has newly emerged ie. when we know it hasn't been around for months. So not much good except in a containment phase which would always be prior to any lockdown. Therefore we are back to the randomised testing of the healthy population - an immunity / antibody test which researchers could work out a testing economy for - ie find a sweet spot for number of tests / per million needing to be done - this may not need to be in the millions.
Someone in a discussion on another website said to me when I proposed the benefit of annual randomised testing of a sample of 10,000 people - they asked how do you test for a virus that doesn't yet exist? This seems like a plausible objection, however just think for a moment. I said earlier that blood samples could (if individuals give permission) be taken even while waiting for an immunity test to be developed. So in the same way we can take samples and then if a novel virus emerges in the future we have the random samples already there to test for the new virus - then we would be able to see how long the virus has been around for.
There is so much we could be doing in the meantime.
Does this seem a bit over the top? What about a fine? There isn't enough detail in article so I don't know if the individual had been fined, he had failed to attend the virus testing centre. Some parts of the world are letting people on remand etc. out of prison in case they catch the coronavirus, and others parts to be putting people with the coronavirus in jail. Doesn't make any sense.
No it isn't to tough. He knowingly had symptoms and was possibly positive, went out, to an old relatives place and the spent 2 -3 hours outside. How many people did he infect if he did have the virus. Sorry to be a bit right winged on this but an example needs to be made. This isn't just a bit of weakness by going out a bit longer or hanging around a park, this is blatant flaunting of the advise given to save lives.
"I should use simulator loosely 'cos I don't think it's quite like this on the beach with helicopters and fires and the jumping beach buggy" - paulisthebest3uk 2020.
The issue with testing at the moment is how long it takes
And that it's not accurate. False negatives mean that testing isn't a magic bullet that will end lockdowns and social distancing, even if they could somehow test 100% of the population.
All I've seen is doctors saying that they are getting negative results from patients that they think should be testing positive....they can think all they like - that's why tests are needed. I don't believe/trust what is coming out of China regarding the same suggestions of a possible 30% fail to detect rate.
Sounds a bit wishy washy to me. PCR is very accurate as long as the sampling from the patient is done properly.
"I should use simulator loosely 'cos I don't think it's quite like this on the beach with helicopters and fires and the jumping beach buggy" - paulisthebest3uk 2020.
as long as the sampling from the patient is done properly.
There's one answer in your own post!
Being very accurate isn't good enough if you want to use testing to end lockdowns and get the country back to business as usual. It needs to be infallible.
It only takes one infectious person in the country wandering about with a false sense of security and a month later we're back to where we started.
Note I'm not saying testing isn't needed. The scientists need lots of test results from the general population to get a good idea of how widespread this thing is and what ratio of infections are mild or even symptomless to severe resulting in hospitalisation or death.
It's needed to better decide how/when/if we should relax lockdowns, not as some people seem to assume a way to give people an "I've not got covid" badge, pat them on the head, and send them back to work.
No it isn't to tough. He knowingly had symptoms and was possibly positive, went out, to an old relatives place and the spent 2 -3 hours outside. How many people did he infect if he did have the virus. Sorry to be a bit right winged on this but an example needs to be made. This isn't just a bit of weakness by going out a bit longer or hanging around a park, this is blatant flaunting of the advise given to save lives.
An example on the isle of man, or for the whole of the UK?
How about an adequately resourced NHS? Alleged shortages there - that may have been the result of "austerity" (which was more or less engineered austerity in the UK) and the previous government - as Boris had only been PM for a couple of months. Your forgetting barely two months ago they where going to let most of us catch it. Also so far its been the retail sector that has implemented measures of its own initiative to help older folks (old people's hour etc). But I am a bit off topic of my post.
Personally without knowing more, on the face of it I think it comes over as heavy handed, that is if he could have been fined. I find it rather disturbing how people are prepared to let draconian measures be put into effect without any solid information on the spread of the virus to say they are needed. You do realise in the UK we have not actually validated the spread of the virus, we don't know if half the population have it already or only half a million. It not just been the UK, but this sort of approach has been called "Fear versus data" or "panic now, and evaluate later". I am not experienced enough, but such an approach seriously needs questioned. If we had been doing randomised sampling annually we would be in a far better position and could know how long it had been around and to what extent it had spread. Sadly there is a lot of poor methodology and propaganda about.
The issue with testing at the moment is how long it takes
And that it's not accurate. False negatives mean that testing isn't a magic bullet that will end lockdowns and social distancing, even if they could somehow test 100% of the population.
There are two types of test - one is do you have it currently the other is have you got antibodies which indicate a degree of immunity - to my mind the second sort is the more important. There is not a lot of point doing millions of the first sort, if thousands of people then catch the virus a few days after having been tested. I would have thought though i am happy to be corrected that if we took random blood samples yearly even if only a few thousand that would give us a head start in knowing when a virus first emerges.
There are three strains of the 2019 Novel coronavirus, one is predominately affecting China, there is another strain type C which is affecting much of Europe apparently, but hardly found in China - I only read about this the other day, so we need to be developing our own tests not relying on China for sending us tests.
Another important point is that even for those who have recovered, there is no guarantee that immunity will last. With some other coronaviruses, immunity only lasts a few months which could mean that if it's still floating around next year, people who already had it might not be able to fight it anymore without producing new antibodies, so could become ill again.
Also, the longer the virus remains in the human population, the greater the chance it could mutate into a different (but just as infectious + deadly) type of human coronavirus. Which would put everyone who had immunity (or a vaccine) against Covid-19 vulnerable again. :-O
! Standby alert !
“There are four lights!”
Step up to red alert. Sir, are you absolutely sure? It does mean changing the bulb!
Looking forward to summer in Somerset later in the year :)
as long as the sampling from the patient is done properly.
There's one answer in your own post!
Being very accurate isn't good enough if you want to use testing to end lockdowns and get the country back to business as usual. It needs to be infallible.
It only takes one infectious person in the country wandering about with a false sense of security and a month later we're back to where we started.
No I don't think that follows, many people are developing immunity - it would not be a back to square one situation. We never will be able to totally prevent everyone from getting it - the only reason given for the lockdown in the UK is to give more time to prepare and so the NHS isn't overburdened and maybe in the near future we find some existing medication that is effective.
Its not for ending lockdowns that the testing is needed, it is for the purpose of calling lockdowns! Because we cannot have this happen again a few years from now - the randomised samples need to be taken in advance (people can be asked if they'd like to be part of it) Maybe as few as 10,000 would give us a good clue as to how much a virus had already been around, for how long when testing commences. Then if there is a concerning pattern of cases in one country we start testing blood samples already taken and find out the extend of the spread.
! Standby alert !
“There are four lights!”
Step up to red alert. Sir, are you absolutely sure? It does mean changing the bulb!
Looking forward to summer in Somerset later in the year :)
Comments
Hi. I don't know, hematologists, oncologists, virologists.. I'm just an internet loony. Did you read the paper about blue methylene? the idea is to draw the patient's blood, inactivate the virus with this photoactivation technique, and take it back into the patient. I've read the virus seems to interfere with hemoglobin and you die because of inflammatory response and byproducts in your blood. As this virus is as easy to inactivate why not to carry out autotransfusions?
JSpeccy-win32-portable
I honestly don't know Hikoki, that is a bit beyond me. I thought the main problem this virus led to was pneumonia?
Also why if buying 50 workstations, surely one could get those much cheaper than retail, even wholesale price if one went to the right company. I don't know how "prefered bidder" works but probably its not lowest bidder by the sound of it!
That just made me think "We have a fuzzbox, and we're not afraid to use it" :))
We have a fuzzbox on this conversation and we are not afraid to use it.
That's exactly one of the very things that got us all in this trouble.
It was going to blow up in our faces somehow.
We also need an effective, accurate and inexpensive antibody test so that we can also discover who has had the infection.
Once (if) we have sufficient testing capacity, then anyone who is suspected of having the infection can be tested, and their movements tracked, and the people they have interacted with, traced and also tested. This should, if done well, enable the ‘lock down’ to be lifted.
There does need to be millions of tests...
If/when a vaccine becomes available, then mass vaccination across the whole world should be able to eradicate this strain. Not that this is likely, as most countries will not want to pay for the third world to be inoculated.
Leaving some areas untreated, with the infection still spreading, risks the virus mutating. And it’s possible that eventually it will mutate into another strain and go around the world again.
I don’t know how to put in place an effective early warning system. But I do know that with modern air travel, it was likely, that sooner or later, an airborne infection would escape from one area, and quickly go round the whole world.
In the past, before travel by ship became common place, explorers brought infections (that were not considered dangerous in their homelands) to new populations that had no immunity and it caused widespread infections, often resulting in deaths.
So if there is an outbreak of something new, countries should be encouraged to tell the world, and the whole world should offer support (whatever they need) so that they can contain any new infection or disease. If necessary by suspending air travel and restricting surface transport to contain any outbreak.
As it stands at the moment, countries and governments acted far too late and far too slowly. Hence them now having to use a very blunt instrument, as they don’t have any other tools available. Worse, some did not learn the lessons from the countries that were first affected. Now they are paying the price.
Countries also (for the most part) acted only in their own self interest, instead of actively communicating and cooperating with one another.
Party because the top level of government saw the outbreak as only a China issue, and it was nothing to do with them. And partly because they did not believe others (fake news, it’s only like influenza).
The question was asked, if we did not have a lockdown, what would have been the outcome? Well, my crystal ball is currently inoperative (displaying an error message that says it has “limited functionality”).
Remember, even before the ‘lockdown’ various businesses were experiencing serious problems due to a dramatic fall in customers.
But a possible likely scenario if government took no action would be this:
Government ignores the consequences of a widespread infection. People get sick, hospitals quickly become overwhelmed. As hospitals can’t cope with the demand, medical staff have to make hard choices on who gets treatment. Lots of people start dying. The media picks up on all this.
As there are no travel restrictions, very quickly the sharp rise in hospital admissions and the resulting deaths spreads across the whole country. As more and more people leave the urban areas and retreat to the smaller towns, villages and countryside, so they spread the infection far and wide.
As the situation gets worse, more and more of the population decide to only go out to go to work or to get essentials (food, medicine). Those who are wealthy enough, stop at home because they don’t want to catch it and die. Increasingly, but far too late, large numbers of the population bunker down at home. But many are now infected even if they don’t know it yet.
The economy nosedives due to both people not going out socially and because businesses loose workers due to them becoming infected. It’s hard to run a company if most of your staff are off sick. Essential services breakdown as more and more people become infected. Shops can’t restock the shelves. Shops close. Fuel stations close.
Central and local government grinds to almost to a halt. Electrical power restrictions come in. Fuel is rationed. Police, ambulance and fire and rescue services increasingly break down. The banking and insurance system collapses as an increasing number of businesses go insolvent or just stop trading leaving bills unpaid.
With the government social security getting a triple whammy, of a huge spike in applications, a lot less staff and a drop in money (drastic drop in tax income), the waiting list for benefits skyrockets.
What little medical staff are left, still cannot cope with the seriously ill.
No one except the very rich has funerals, instead bodies are buried in mass graves. There are not enough fit healthy staff available who are willing to check on homes where there has been no activity. Thousands and thousands of people die in their own homes with the bodies awaiting discovery...
Of course, eventually those who survived both the infection and the chaos will restart the economy, as the fear subsides... but at what cost?
How bad would it get? I don’t know, but for certain it would be far worse than the current partially controlled ‘lockdown’.
Mark
Repair Guides. Spanish Hardware site.
WoS - can't download? Info here...
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Spectranet: the TNFS directory thread
! Standby alert !
“There are four lights!”
Step up to red alert. Sir, are you absolutely sure? It does mean changing the bulb!
Looking forward to summer in Somerset later in the year :)
Also:
- earn enough money; (I was among a few lucky to get a paid leave, but soon it’s over)
Most civilized countries have unemployment benefits and in addition some are giving payments to their people. If that's not happening where you live, blame your government's inability to cope not some global scandal.
- ask urgent police/firemen help; (now they reluctantly come after an hour or later, unless it’s a serious case)
That's to be expected given the need for social distancing and a limited supply of personal protection equipment required for safe policing.
- ask for medical assistance; (also sluggish, unless the person is under 60 with a health insurance and no cancer or comorbids; or it might be an advanced form of pneumonia)
It there is capacity, hospitals will take you, but the sad truth is this virus is so potent that doctors are having to make the call over who is most likely to survive and have the best quality of life. That's why this virus is such a serious problem for every country.
- visit public places and parks or attend schools and institutions;
Do you honestly think the right to visit parks and attend schools is a priority at the moment?
By the way I am still teaching, as a professor of computer science my courses meet at the scheduled times but online as a collaborative web cast. So students can get taught if there is the will and the resources.
I am also still meeting weekly with my group of 8-12 year olds for Lego Club, their STEM and robotics class is now online. Its down to the individuals willingness to do it and technical resources at their disposal a not some global conspiracy. If it was I'm sure as hell the internet would not be working so well.
- go out without a mask even being not sick;
We all want that but its not practical or sensible at this time.
- go whenever and wherever he or she wants, including foreign countries;
Of **** off you nutter!
- personally communicate with the family members and others;
Telephone, facetime, skype, zoom? Online games.
- demand explanations, ask question, and voice unpopular opinions;
That's the internet.
-and everything because of a covid-19, while the worst is yet to come.[/b]
Yes, the most sensible thing you have said yet.
Now lets get to the rest of your babble, all eight points are still happening.
Oh and by the way, see you in two weeks. I thought at this time you would like some social discourse but you are clearly wanting to be abrasive.
@luny@mstdn.games
https://www.luny.co.uk
Be careful, it is just a headline. Probably a single person, maybe a scientist, but still only one person may have mentioned it. News hang on to anything that sounds sensationalist and use it for impact.
Might work in my favour with some of the guys I work with ;) Also it'll stop those heated elements... Phew! :\">
@luny@mstdn.games
https://www.luny.co.uk
So - how's everyone been staying sane? I live alone and well.....this is getting real old real quick.
It's kind of depressing tbh. I can go days without even speaking at the moment if I don't check myself.
Safely getting out for some exercise is a good thing. If you don't see another person within say 50 feet and you're outside in your locale then all is good(check the numbers for Ireland - we're not doing too bad over here so far).
I've resorted to skateboarding....Keeping it small and safe though - not the time to break bones. Just pushing and cruising around with my Son(I live in the same estate as my ex). Very enjoyable way to break the boredom.
I had to nip into work(which has been an empty building for 2 - 3 weeks so again - safe enough) for a couple of hours today - weird driving on a motorway again. Everything approaching at 120km/h was actually appreciable after 3 weeks of being fairly stationary. Was a real mental boost to get out and drive further than 2kms from home.
Hope you're all finding a way to "keep your pecker up" anyway.
I've tried reeling them in, I've tried telling them what to do, and all I get is "I'll have to call my agency to make sure I can do that".....Seriously, you have to call your agency to make sure you can walk into the coldstore in back and place a box on top of a f*cking cart that has boxes on it? Get out of my f*cking workplace you f*cking scummy mother*cking toothless freeloaders.....All the while my bosses are bitching me out for sh*t not getting done that I could do better alone than without the so called "help" they're giving me! Why did they take away the 2 or 3 people from me who know what they're doing, and replace them with temps I have to constantly watch, and micro-manage, I can't f*cking deal with this s*t anymore....It's driving me f*cking mental!!!
….and the whole time customers saying things like "Thank you for you hard work", and things like "I Appreciate you guys", and "Thank you so much for keeping the shelves stocked"....It's p*ssing me off as well! Funny I don't recall a single compliment like that at all in the whole f*cking 12 years I've worked at my place before this sh*t happened? Hey I do this sh*t "EVERY" DAY, AND I MEAN EVERY DAY, NOT JUST DAYS WHEN THE WORLD IS COLLAPSSING IN ON ITSELF!!!!!....
So yeah it's good to know my hard f*cking work is only relevant when my life is at risk, go home to your f*cking mansion, drink 2 bottles of wine, polish your 8 giant gold rings, and hit your 6 kids while your husband f*cks his secretary at the hospital office block....f*cking c*nts!!!
What's really baking my head is though that the 2 potential amazing career swerves that were served up to me practically on a plate late last year can't happen now because of closures, and social distancing, both places are closed and I have no idea if they are even gonna survive. like most grocery types in the USA I'm held prisoner by although having a sh*t f*cking job I hate with every atom of my f*cking soul the health insurance is really, really good, and obviously at a time like this being a 41 year old smoker it could potentially be suicide to turn my back on such a thing....but really I have no idea how much more I can take? I'm going mental here, and I think I was long before this f*cking virus took a grip, but it looks like I have no real way out now......Don't know how much more I can take :( :( :(
Both Iceland and Austria are doing voluntary screening and getting useful information.
https://www.government.is/diplomatic-missions/embassy-article/2020/03/15/Large-scale-testing-of-general-population-in-Iceland-underway/
Basically in the UK there are people who are not sick seeking to know if they are nevertheless infected but asymptomatic. As the number of people being tested increases it soon will reach a point where it would have been equivalent to the numbers involved in a randomised trial. It may already be passed that in the UK. But I think there might be a lot of value in doing the randomised trial as early as possible. While it would be best done once an anti-body blood test is available, one could nevertheless already be taking and storing blood samples for analysis by way of a randomised selection of healthy people - while waiting for the anti-body tests to become available.
I agree Mark. Private commercial labs will inevitably seek to make a profit on producing these as they have to direct resources away from other work. Making a small profit may not be profiteering, but there is always the issue of reaching agreement on pricing. For that reason I think we need more public laboratories in the UK.
Sounds like a nightmare Orwellian state in the making to be honest. This would not be practical - tracing contacts and testing them is mainly practical only when a virus has newly emerged and we know it has newly emerged ie. when we know it hasn't been around for months. So not much good except in a containment phase which would always be prior to any lockdown. Therefore we are back to the randomised testing of the healthy population - an immunity / antibody test which researchers could work out a testing economy for - ie find a sweet spot for number of tests / per million needing to be done - this may not need to be in the millions.
Someone in a discussion on another website said to me when I proposed the benefit of annual randomised testing of a sample of 10,000 people - they asked how do you test for a virus that doesn't yet exist? This seems like a plausible objection, however just think for a moment. I said earlier that blood samples could (if individuals give permission) be taken even while waiting for an immunity test to be developed. So in the same way we can take samples and then if a novel virus emerges in the future we have the random samples already there to test for the new virus - then we would be able to see how long the virus has been around for.
There is so much we could be doing in the meantime.
Does this seem a bit over the top? What about a fine? There isn't enough detail in article so I don't know if the individual had been fined, he had failed to attend the virus testing centre. Some parts of the world are letting people on remand etc. out of prison in case they catch the coronavirus, and others parts to be putting people with the coronavirus in jail. Doesn't make any sense.
Opinions?
@luny@mstdn.games
https://www.luny.co.uk
My ex misses is a lab tech - she's volunteered to run PCR on samples(so have most people who are technically able to too).
A kind of explanation of what the current testing is:
https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0330/1127277-coronavirus-test-laboratory-samples-ireland/
Hopefully something like this becomes a reality to make wider and faster testing a reality:
https://www.siliconrepublic.com/start-ups/coronavirus-testing-kit-ireland-assay-genie
And that it's not accurate. False negatives mean that testing isn't a magic bullet that will end lockdowns and social distancing, even if they could somehow test 100% of the population.
All I've seen is doctors saying that they are getting negative results from patients that they think should be testing positive....they can think all they like - that's why tests are needed. I don't believe/trust what is coming out of China regarding the same suggestions of a possible 30% fail to detect rate.
Sounds a bit wishy washy to me. PCR is very accurate as long as the sampling from the patient is done properly.
Being very accurate isn't good enough if you want to use testing to end lockdowns and get the country back to business as usual. It needs to be infallible.
It only takes one infectious person in the country wandering about with a false sense of security and a month later we're back to where we started.
It's needed to better decide how/when/if we should relax lockdowns, not as some people seem to assume a way to give people an "I've not got covid" badge, pat them on the head, and send them back to work.
An example on the isle of man, or for the whole of the UK?
How about an adequately resourced NHS? Alleged shortages there - that may have been the result of "austerity" (which was more or less engineered austerity in the UK) and the previous government - as Boris had only been PM for a couple of months. Your forgetting barely two months ago they where going to let most of us catch it. Also so far its been the retail sector that has implemented measures of its own initiative to help older folks (old people's hour etc). But I am a bit off topic of my post.
Personally without knowing more, on the face of it I think it comes over as heavy handed, that is if he could have been fined. I find it rather disturbing how people are prepared to let draconian measures be put into effect without any solid information on the spread of the virus to say they are needed. You do realise in the UK we have not actually validated the spread of the virus, we don't know if half the population have it already or only half a million. It not just been the UK, but this sort of approach has been called "Fear versus data" or "panic now, and evaluate later". I am not experienced enough, but such an approach seriously needs questioned. If we had been doing randomised sampling annually we would be in a far better position and could know how long it had been around and to what extent it had spread. Sadly there is a lot of poor methodology and propaganda about.
There are two types of test - one is do you have it currently the other is have you got antibodies which indicate a degree of immunity - to my mind the second sort is the more important. There is not a lot of point doing millions of the first sort, if thousands of people then catch the virus a few days after having been tested. I would have thought though i am happy to be corrected that if we took random blood samples yearly even if only a few thousand that would give us a head start in knowing when a virus first emerges.
There are three strains of the 2019 Novel coronavirus, one is predominately affecting China, there is another strain type C which is affecting much of Europe apparently, but hardly found in China - I only read about this the other day, so we need to be developing our own tests not relying on China for sending us tests.
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/coronavirus/2020/04/14/Coronavirus-has-3-strains-2nd-mutation-is-the-one-first-found-in-Wuhan-Scientists
Also, the longer the virus remains in the human population, the greater the chance it could mutate into a different (but just as infectious + deadly) type of human coronavirus. Which would put everyone who had immunity (or a vaccine) against Covid-19 vulnerable again. :-O
Isle of Man government web site: https://www.gov.im/
Mark
Repair Guides. Spanish Hardware site.
WoS - can't download? Info here...
former Meulie Spectrum Archive but no longer available :-(
Spectranet: the TNFS directory thread
! Standby alert !
“There are four lights!”
Step up to red alert. Sir, are you absolutely sure? It does mean changing the bulb!
Looking forward to summer in Somerset later in the year :)
No I don't think that follows, many people are developing immunity - it would not be a back to square one situation. We never will be able to totally prevent everyone from getting it - the only reason given for the lockdown in the UK is to give more time to prepare and so the NHS isn't overburdened and maybe in the near future we find some existing medication that is effective.
Its not for ending lockdowns that the testing is needed, it is for the purpose of calling lockdowns! Because we cannot have this happen again a few years from now - the randomised samples need to be taken in advance (people can be asked if they'd like to be part of it) Maybe as few as 10,000 would give us a good clue as to how much a virus had already been around, for how long when testing commences. Then if there is a concerning pattern of cases in one country we start testing blood samples already taken and find out the extend of the spread.
Here is the relevant page on the law in the Isle of Man if you don’t comply: https://covid19.gov.im/general-information/stay-at-home-self-isolation/ (scroll down the page).
Mark
Repair Guides. Spanish Hardware site.
WoS - can't download? Info here...
former Meulie Spectrum Archive but no longer available :-(
Spectranet: the TNFS directory thread
! Standby alert !
“There are four lights!”
Step up to red alert. Sir, are you absolutely sure? It does mean changing the bulb!
Looking forward to summer in Somerset later in the year :)